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Signum Research

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Signum Research

Signum Research es una empresa independiente de análisis financiero y bursátil conformada por analistas y expertos de amplia experiencia en el medio y por un consejo de asesores integrado por personalidades de alto reconocimiento en los mercados financieros. Signum Research cuenta con la más avanzada tecnología y sistemas que le permiten realizar sus cálculos y modelos analíticos de manera eficiente, en tiempo real, y publicarlos oportunamente en su portal de análisis financiero.<br /> Nos hemos establecido como meta el producir el mejor análisis bursátil independiente: un análisis oportuno, sencillo, confiable, asequible e interesante, de manera que los mercados financieros puedan ser intelectualmente accesibles a una mayor parte de la población. Nuestro objetivo final es, a través de nuestro análisis, encontrar la señal detrás del ruido cotidiano en los mercados, una señal que fundamente sólidamente nuestras recomendaciones de inversión.<br /> En Signum Research sabemos que los mercados financieros son una importante herramienta de desarrollo, Signum Research busca contribuir en la difusión de una cultura financiera y de inversión que permita a quien carezca de experiencia –pero que tenga el interés- participar del progreso que brindan los mercados financieros.<br /> Signum Research se ha asociado con The Competitive Intelligence Unit, una empresa de consultoría estratégica especializada en áreas de análisis de oportunidades de negocio, telecomunicaciones, regulación y economía para desarrollar y publicar análisis sectoriales y en materia de regulación.
08.oct.19

Signum Perspectives

3Q19 Consumption Sector

The 3Q19 reporting season is just around the corner, and given the importance of the consumer sector to the Mexican economy, we have compiled a list of some of the leading consumer names along with a brief guide to 3Q19 earnings.

We expect good performance from LaComer that was partially driven by the “Temporada Naranja” in-&-out campaign.

This campaign, which competes head-on with “Soriana’s Julio Regalado” campaign have been very favorable for LaComer and traffic flow continues to increase translating into market share gains.

Expected 3Q19 SSS growth is +7.2% and total sales growth is 11.5%.

Profitability should increase on the back of ongoing benefits from the adaptation to the company’s new size and better bargaining power with suppliers, while shrinkage levels have been decreasing.

The Q318 EBITDA margin was favored by a one-time gain from the sale of a piece of land. Excluding that amount, the EBITDA margin would have been 7.9% based on which we expect an increase of 110bp to 9.0%.

However, taking reported results into account, the EBITDA margin should decrease -360 bp from 12.6% to 9.0%.

Store openings should continue focus on the City Market and Fresko formats, and management expects to open between 8 and 10 stores per year. Besides operations in Mexico City and the surrounding area, they are considering expanding to cities in Mexico with relatively higher per capita income.

2019 Capex is P$2.50 – P$3 bn for 6 Fresko stores and 3 to 4 other projects.

LaComer has a debt-free policy.

We forecast ongoing favorable sales and EBITDA margin performance. Once the company’s new size has been assimilated, economies of scale should increase.

Our end-2020 target price P$28 and our rating is BUY.

For the first time in several years, we expect Soriana to post a relatively better report than in previous quarters.

Part of the driver should be the “Julio Regalado” campaign. This promotional campaign has an objective to boost sales at the expense of margins.

Better results would be achieved because of an aggressive “Julio Regalado” campaign; However, in coming quarters, performance could weaken, as the comparison base will be higher.

We project SSS growth of +2.5% and total sales growth of +3.0%.

The EBITDA margin could increase by 40bp to 6.5%, mostly due to the IFRS effect.

The company continues to be affected by a sales lag stemming from supply chain difficulties in recent quarters owing to systems not being fully integrated.

Soriana has still not reached the desired efficiency levels following the acquisition of Comercial Mexicana, and until the merger is complete, profitability margins are unlikely to improve in the medium term.

While the “Julio Regalado” campaign should drive sales growth, it should thereafter normalize around low levels and continue to put pressure on the EBITDA margin.

Our end-2020 target price is P$27 per share and our rating is Hold.

Industrias Bachoco should report a robust third quarter report with sales growth and EBITDA margin expansion of more than 800 bp. The reason for this would be a Q318 comparison base of decreased protein and chicken prices in general followed by a recovery since April, 2019.

Chicken prices have been growing at a sustained average rate of 5% m/m since Q219, implying a price increase three times the rate of headline inflation in Mexico.

As a result, we expect sales to total $15.240 bn, +8% y/y and EBITDA P$1.375 bn, with an EBITDA margin of 9% based on company guidance, which compares favorably with a Q318 EBITDA margin of 0.5%.

However, chicken prices began to decrease as of the second half of August, so we expect results to normalize in the coming quarters.

At current prices, we view the stock as attractively valued and have a BUY rating on it with a Q420 target price of P$90.90 per share.

LALA should post a positive report showing q/q increases in margins across regions. We forecast y/y sales growth of 2.4% and 14.7% y/y with EBITDA margin expansion of 110 bp.

Soft consumption in Mexico and seasonal factors associated with the quarter, tanished domestic results with marginal improvement in profitability.

In the U.S., which accounts for 5% of sales, there should be major improvements in EBITDA margin levels at 3% driven by savings from a plant closure, corporate restructuring and leveraging shared services from Torreon, Coahuila to 2020. Additionally, LALA USA achieved a 10% increase in prices within the modern canal.

Both Central America and the U.S. achieved positive EBITDA in 2019.

Brazil, with an EBITDA margin of more than 8%, a q/q improvement of 20bp, should contribute to results. The increase in mature cheese capacity, which includes Parmesan and gorgonzola, which make a relatively higher contribution, should continue to drive margins by 10% according to company guidance to 2020. Likewise, the Lactalis compensation agreement should have a favorable impact on 3Q19.

Finally, LALA should report net profit growth of more than 100% due to the transfer pricing fine that impacted Q318. Our rating is BUY with a 2020 target price of P$27.00 per share.



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